How the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Affected Energy Prices

How the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Affected Energy Prices

Oil and gas prices have been a subject of much concern in recent years, with a correlation between the conflict in Ukraine and global economic growth. While these issues are linked, the global picture is less clear. In past times, spikes in energy prices have prompted the opposite response: consumers cut down on driving and purchased fuel-efficient vehicles. On the other hand, nations and companies invested in oil and gas infrastructure around the world. This might not be the case for the current energy crisis.

Oil and gas prices

While the conflict between Ukraine and Russia hasn’t directly affected oil and gas production, it is affecting oil prices nonetheless. While sanctions on oil imports have not yet taken effect, Russia has already halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Meanwhile, oil and gas prices could increase further, depending on whether the situation between the two countries continues or the conflict ends. In either case, more than a third of Russia’s exports to the EU pass through Ukraine.

As the war continues in Ukraine, energy prices have risen sharply. Although the war has been a major catalyst for rising oil and gas prices, it also has ramifications for the world economy. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil and natural gas supplier and is a critical energy supplier to the European Union. Therefore, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will affect energy prices worldwide.

Although Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, its military aggression has led to a full-blown humanitarian crisis. This has pushed up energy prices worldwide, despite the fact that actual supply and demand are unaffected by the conflict. The conflict has also increased fears of Russian weaponization of fossil fuels. This concern has prompted President Biden to ban Russian oil imports from the U.S. and other countries.

Global economic growth

The world economy is currently recovering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, but the war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on the global economy. Inflation is high, and the war has affected food and energy prices. In addition to the war, China’s “COVID ZERO” policies have also scrambled global manufacturing supply chains. A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the conflict will reduce world economic growth by 0.7 to 1.3 percentage points this year and will increase inflation in its member nations by 2.5 percentage points by 2022.

The conflict has caused a major increase in commodity prices, especially for key commodities. Russia and Ukraine account for a substantial share of global corn and wheat exports, and are major suppliers to European and Middle Eastern markets. A host of industries rely on the inputs from Russia and Ukraine, including those for semiconductors, aerospace, and palladium for catalytic converters. This has impacted global economic growth and led to the imposition of new sanctions.

In March, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its projections for global growth by 0.6 percentage points, citing the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Russian military action in Ukraine has caused higher food prices and reduced demand in many low-income economies. This has also weakened the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a slowdown in demand in the export markets. Additionally, the recent Chinese lockdown has created a further headwind for growth.


The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked global uncertainty and raised concerns about the impact on energy prices. While gas prices in the U.S. have already risen substantially since February, the conflict has already pushed inflation to a near 40-year high. The conflict is expected to increase gasoline prices, but the effects will likely be short-lived. The most significant impacts are likely to be felt in the European market.

The conflict is likely to negatively impact global growth, but the consequences are yet to be seen. The Federal Reserve has warned that sanctions imposed on Russia could have long-term consequences on the world economy. According to J.P. Morgan research, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to prolong the current synchronized monetary policy tightening cycle, which is characterized by healthy demand, rapidly tightening supply, and continued inflationary pressures. Russia is responsible for about 10% of global oil production, and it is unlikely that its production will be completely cut off in the coming months. As a result, it is expected that Brent crude prices will remain around $100 a barrel through mid-year, despite the possible disruptions in the supply of oil and gas.

The high cost of gas and heating is already putting a damper on consumer spending and economic growth. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could result in high prices for diesel and jet fuel as well. The conflict could also lead to inflation, which will lead to higher prices. Moreover, the US economy is strong at the moment and supply chain problems are being addressed. Moreover, the price of gasoline is expected to increase further in the near future.